Retail Market Overview

Updated in March 2023

Shopping centres have been the main retail attraction in Portugal over three decades. However, after the economic and financial crisis, strong tourism growth, economy recovery as well as the renovation of several buildings have brought a new life to the dormant historic centres of Lisbon and Porto.

The Portuguese property retail market was growing at a good pace and gradually adapting to online commerce and changes in lifestyle, until Covid-19 outbreak. Private consumption was attaining the highest historic levels and tourism increasing for 10 rolling years.

Despite a fall in 2020, private consumption, already started growing in 2021 and is expected to exceed pre-pandemic levels in 2022. Tourism has also revamped and in 2022, the number of overnight stays similar to 2019. All Covid restrictions were already waived in Portugal.

Shopping center performance plummeted in 2020 and in 2021 still presented a 2.5% y-o-y decrease in footfall, and 37% down from 2019, according to ShopperTrak. 2022 registered a recovery to pre-covid performance, as annual accumulated footfall in the shopping center managed by CBRE stood only 2% below 2019. In fact, in 2022 retail activity was very positive, despite the inflation spike. However, CBRE foresees challenging months for Retail due to the potential decline on purchasing power. The upsurge on operational costs above inflation will impact on occupancy costs.

Retail Parks were less punished during the pandemic due to their convenience, greater safety, comfort, and tenant mix. Therefore, we are observing strong interest in the development of new retail parks. In fact, in 2022 four new Retail Parks opened, with a total area of 44,900 sq m. For 2023, 20,000 sq m are expected to enter the market, along with an expansion of Focus Retail Park.

In high street, retail activity also showed a gradual recovery. A good pace of store openings was recorded both in Lisbon and Porto high street retail zones over 2022, with the Food and Beverage sector remaining the most active.

Logists Market Overview

Updated in March 2023

There is no structured urban plan for the logistics market in Portugal. The majority of logistics premises have been developed independently by private developers. However, several municipalities have established allotments for industrial and logistics parks, mainly targeted at the light industry and warehousing.

Previously to covid, the logistics market was principally driven by major Portuguese large distribution retailers as well as transport companies, the latter undertaking a relevant share of logistics operation, as only a few numbers of worldwide logistics companies were present in the country. Effectively, a low e-commerce penetration and the proximity between Portugal and Spain placed Portugal as an extension in the logistics chain established in the neighbouring country.

The Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated e-commerce growth and in 2021 Portugal achieved a 7.6% penetration from approximately 5% before covid, according to Euromonitor. We are already seeing the expansion of established retailers and expect to see the transfer to Portugal of a few logistics processes of international companies.

The logistics market saw a boost in 2021. A total of 428,000 sq m of logistic space was occupied, far above the annual average of 220,000 sq m observed between 2016-2020 and the highest level ever recorded in Portugal.

This strong demand has continued throughout 2022, when 412,000 sqm were occupied, reaching the second-best full year level. We note a significant growth of take up in the Centre region.

Logistics Gross take-up in Portugal

LISBON WAREHOUSE AND LOGISTICS MARKET

The almost non-existent speculative development over the last decade in Portugal has placed vacancy rates at historic low levels, currently standing at 1%. The availability of spaces to lease is very short and take-up has been marked by build-to suit developments.

The Lisbon warehouse and logistics stock is concentrated in eight zones. The more central zones, namely Lisbon, Sintra-Cascais, CRIL and Loures-Vialonga are characterised by the supply of smaller sized warehouses and frequently of mix-use spaces and are those demanded for the last mile logistics. The big box logistics stock is concentrated in the four remaining zones, namely Póvoa Sta Iria – Alverca, Carregado - Azambuja, Montijo - Alcochete and Palmela - Setúbal. Palmela-Setúbal zone emerged from the installation of the Volkswagen plant (Autoeuropa) at this location in the early 1990’s. The prime logistics axis runs along road N3 at Carregado – Azambuja zone. These zones comprise a logistics stock of 2.6 million sq m, including stand-alone warehouses but also a few logistics parks.

Lisbon region logistics take-up skyrocketed in 2021 achieving a historic high of 264,000 sq m and largely exceeding the 2016-2020 annual average of 141,000 sq m. Although take-up has been leveraged by Sonae’s 80,500 sq m pre-let deal in Aquila’s Azambuja Green Logistics Park in the last quarter of 2021, a record high would still be reached, if this deal was not completed.

Logistics activity remained robust over 2022 with take-up reaching 227,200 sq m, which was close to the previous year level. Major deals include 38,000 sq m occupied by NewCold in Palmela, a new BTS 25,000 sq m shed for Olicargo expansion in Azambuja, and 22,000 sq m of Carreras also in Azambuja.

Vacancy has reached an historical low in 2022, standing at 1%. (less 1.7 pp yoy). Vacancy was driven by the occupation of several secondhand assets.

Besides the high level of take-up in Lisbon and development rising from subdued levels, most of the new projects that have been constructed are build-to-suit or have been pre-let. After almost one decade with residual speculative development, 87,000 sq m were completed in 2021 and other 39,000 sq m are under construction but only expected to be delivered in 2023. This will continue to drive declines in the vacancy rate and an upward pressure on rents.

Over the last year, prime rents have increased in several logistics zones and further growth is expected as new quality developments come to the market. Big-Box prime rent (at Carregado – Azambuja) stands at €4.00/sq m/month.

Logistics developments in Lisbon

PORTO WAREHOUSE AND LOGISTICS MARKET

The Greater Porto logistics stock is concentrated in 7 major zones, namely Matosinhos, Airport, Maia, Vila do Conde, Trofa, Alfena and Vila Nova de Gaia. Contrary to Lisbon, in Porto there is a wider spread of logistics warehouses and within mix-use areas.

The logistics stock in Greater Porto currently amounts to 1.1 million sq m. Additions to the stock over the last 10 years have been comprised exclusively by build-to-suit developments, which was seen in 2022 as well. However, we are recording again speculative projects. After VGP Park completion in 2021, two other speculative projects are currently under construction and due to be completed until 2023-year end.

On the demand side, take-up has been very uneven. Take-up in 2021 recorded a historic new high of 142,250 sq m, marginally exceeding the previous 133,000 sq m verified in 2017, when Jerónimo Martins occupied 79,000 sq m. However, 2022 did not recorded the same take-up level, with a total occupation of 63,650 sq m. The lower level of take-up reflects the lack of spaces available to let, which is not expected to change over the upcoming years.

Given the inexistence of spaces available to let, rents have been under upward pressure increasing in all zones. The Big-Box prime logistics rent (Maia zone) increased to €4.50/sq m/month in Q4 2022 (+13% y-o-y).

There is one project under construction in Porto - 17,000 sq m of Logicor in Vila Nova de Gaia – and is expected to be conclude in 2024. Under licensing there are a few projects, being the major the 75,000 sq m of Panattoni in Alfena-Valongo zone. We expect take-up to increase significantly when the construction works of these projects start.

Logistics Developments in Porto

Hotel Market Overview

PORTUGUESE HOTEL MARKET

Updated in March 2023

Well-known for its beautiful beaches, sunny days, good quality golf resorts, excellent wine and cuisine as well as cultural heritage, Portugal is currently one of Europe’s leading tourist destinations. Portugal’s international recognition has increased significantly over the 2010s, with tourism performing as one of the key strategic sectors of the Portuguese economy.

Portugal has been awarded the highest tourist distinctions, being elected “Europe’s Leading Destination" by the World Travel Awards between 2017 and 2020, among other prizes. In 2020, Lisbon was also named “World's Leading City Break Destination” while both in 2020 and 2021 Madeira was voted “World's Leading Island Destination” and The Algarve “World's Leading Beach Destination”.

The influx of tourists clearly reflects these recognitions. The number of international passengers in Portuguese airports increased 68% in 5 years between 2014 and 2019 and 8% in 2019.

Tourism accommodation demand has undergone ten years of consecutive growth, reflecting a relevant 43% upsurge in the number of overnight stays from 2014 to 2019, achieving a total 70 million in 2019.

Recording 30% of the total number of overnight stays in 2019, Algarve is the country’s main tourist destination followed by Lisbon which accounts for 26%.

The foreign market registered an average quota of 70% of total overnight stays, from 2015 to 2019. In 2019, the United Kingdom remained the major foreign market, with a 19% share of total international overnight stays. Likewise, Germany, Spain and France also maintained their positions, in second, third and fourth place, with quotas of 12%, 11% and 9% respectively, while the USA recorded an outstanding 20% growth over 2019.

Overnights upsurge has not been followed by hotel supply, where the number of rooms increased only 20% over the same 5-year period, achieving 105 thousand rooms in 2019. However, Local Accommodation (short-term rental) has rapidly developed across the country with the number of beds doubling in two years and exceeding 350 thousand in 2019. Before the Covid-19 outbreak, Local Accommodation was undoubtably a complement to hotel supply, coping with the exponential growth in tourism demand.

The increase in tourism demand was positively reflected in hotel performance. The hotel occupancy rate per room observed a sustainable and robust increase from 2013 to 2017. This upward trend was interrupted in 2018, but recovered in 2019, reaching 67%. Likewise, an upsurge was recorded in prices, reflecting an 82% increase in hotel RevPAR since 2012, reaching €58 in 2019. Nevertheless, the rate of growth of RevPAR has slowed down significantly in the past couple of years, from a double digit rise between 2015 and 2017, to an increase around 2% and 3% in 2018 and 2019 respectively.

The Covid-19 outbreak halted the tourism sector. The number of hotel overnight stays plummeted 65% year-on-year in 2020, leading to a 60% drop in the RevPAR. The extension of travel restrictions in 2021 continued to affect tourism influx and despite a slight recovery in the second half, demand stood 46% below 2019 figures.

Tourism in Portugal is observing a faster recovery than expected. A total 28.5 million overnight stays were recorded in the first half of 2022, reflecting only a 6% decrease over 2019. Inclusively, North, Alentejo and Madeira regions have already surpassed pre-pandemic demand levels with year-on-year increases between 1% and 2%. Interesting to observe that North America has climbed to the 5th most relevant origin market in 2022, from the 7th position in 2019.

Regarding tourism demand by region, Madeira and Norte stand out with a strong recovery in 2022 with number of overnight stays surpassing by 13% and 7%, respectively, numbers of 2019. In this context, Azores and Alentejo have also disclosed a positive recovery with demand levels 3% and 5%, respectively, above pre-pandemic figures. Algarve and Lisbon Metropolitan Area which registered the greatest downfalls during the pandemic are lagging to fully recover its number of overnight stays standing 9% and 3% below pre-pandemic figures.

Interesting to observe that North America has climbed to the 4th most relevant origin market in 2022, from the 7th position in 2019.

LISBON HOTEL MARKET

Lisbon is a popular city break destination with a reputation for being one of Europe’s most vibrant and trendiest capital cities, offering a good selection of new hotel units, hostels, and high-end restaurants. This reputation has led to several international recognitions such as the “World’s Leading City Break Destination” between 2017 and 2022 and “Europe’s Leading City Break Destination” in 2022 by the World Travel Awards.

International passengers at Lisbon airport maintained an upward trend over the past decade, increasing 72% between 2014 and 2019 and 8% year-on-year in 2019.

Tourism accommodation overnight stays increased more than 50% from 2014 to 2019, boosted by international demand which represented 84% of the market in 2019. The main foreign markets in Lisbon are Brazil, USA, and France. Both Brazilian and North American markets saw a relevant increase in the last pre-pandemic years, even surpassing France and Spain which were previously the most relevant markets.

After years of growth, there was a flattening of hotel overnight stays in Lisbon in 2018 reflecting an already high hotel occupancy rate that limits growth in demand as well as a significant increment in Local Accommodation (short term rental) offer. In 2019 the number of overnight stays in Lisbon has grown 5% year-on-year, when considering Local Accommodation offer. In 2019, the hotel occupancy rate per room was 79% and RevPAR €91.

Local Accommodation increased significantly in 2018, partly anticipating the approval of the law that allows the limitation of local accommodation units. At the end of 2019, the number of beds in local accommodation was 73,700 - 1.8 times the number of hotel beds. However, due to covid-19 pandemic many local accommodations were transferred to the conventional residential market causing a 46% decrease on number of beds in 2020.

The beginning of 2020 was showing again an upward trend until the Covid-19 outbreak severely impacted tourism performance. After a 75% breakdown in 2020, Lisbon reached 5.1 million overnight stays in 2021, disclosing a significant recovery, although still standing 60% below 2019 levels.

We have been observing a strong recovery since the beginning of 2022 with 18 million overnight stays registered in that year, despite still standing 3% below 2019 levels. This recovery is even more evident in terms of performance. Despite bed occupancy rate still standing about 6% below pre-pandemic figures, revenue per available room (RevPAR) is surpassing 2019 revenues by more than 20% since July. In 2022, Lisbon recorded a 57,1% bed occupancy rate and €89,4 in RevPAR.

Regarding supply, the pandemic delayed the inauguration of several hotels. After only five new hotels in 2020, 2021 registered 14 openings which represented 1,600 additional rooms. Three-and four-star hotels accounted for the majority of the new offer, while in the upper-upscale and luxury segments Lisbon welcomed Epic SANA Marquês de Pombal and Eurostars Universal Lisboa in Parque das Nações.

In 2022, Lisbon gained 16 new hotels and more than 1,000 rooms. The last year marked the entrance of new brands in Lisbon such as Hilton’s Curio Collection with the opening of The Emerald House, Accor’s Mama Shelter, Hyatt Regency as well as the launch of Sonae’s Editory Collection with The Editory Riverside Santa Apolónia.

In upcoming years, it is also foreseen the entrance of other international brands in Lisbon such as Hyatt’s Andaz, Yotel and IHG’s Six Senses.

PORTO HOTEL MARKET

The Porto tourism market gained a boost in 2005 with the establishment of the Ryanair hub in the city airport and later, in 2015, with EasyJet. The city was considered by World Travel Awards, “Europe’s Leading City Break Destination” between 2016 and 2020 and “World’s Leading City Destination” in 2022.

The inflow of tourists has skyrocketed in Porto. International passengers at Francisco Sá Carneiro airport increased 89% between 2014 and 2019, and 13% in 2019 – representing the highest rise in Portuguese airports.

The growth of tourism was likewise reflected in the accommodation activity. Tourism demand has increased consecutively, with the number of overnight stays rising by 78% between 2014 and 2019 when reached 4.5 million. This growth was mainly driven by foreign demand which duplicated in the same period. Spain, Brazil and France were the top inbound markets.

With this tourism growth, occupancy in Porto has also increased at a very interesting pace from 2013 to 2017, rising 13 percentage points within this period. The upward trend was interrupted in 2018, with a slight decrease to a 60% occupancy rate, which remained stable in 2019. At the same time, the RevPAR maintained a growing trend, increasing 5%, to €74, in 2019.

After a breakdown of 73% in 2020, the number of overnight stays increased by 50% in 2021 reaching 1.8 million. 2022 supported this recovery trend with 3.5 million overnight stays recorded – surpassing in 10% the number of overnight stays registered in 2019. Hotel performance in Porto also reflects this trend with 52,9% occupancy rate and €68,4 of RevPAR registered in 2022.

After only five openings in 2020, and 12 in 2021, other15 hotel units were added to Porto supply in 2022, comprising more than 800 rooms. The majority of openings were 4-star hotels. The Editory Boulevard Aliados Porto Hotel from The Editory Collection Hotels was the only 5-star hotel inaugurated. New hotel supply comprises 14 hotels in 2023 with more than 1,300 rooms.

ALGARVE HOTEL MARKET

The Algarve is Portugal’s premier sun and beach holiday destination, amongst both national and international visitors. It has pleasantly mild winters and abundant summers, and seemingly endless series of golden sandy beaches. In addition, the region serves as a worldwide benchmark golf destination, offering more than 40 golf courses, where over 1 million rounds are played annually. Effectively, Portugal’s recognition as the World’s Best Golf Destination by World Golf Awards for five consecutive years (2014-2018) and Europe Best Golf Destination in 2021 reflects the strong quality of the Algarve golf courses. Furthermore, Algarve has been frequently elected the Best European Beach Destination by World Travel Awards.

Considering that Algarve is a consolidated and well-known resort destination, tourism has not grown at such a high rate as other regions over the last years. Notwithstanding, international passengers in Faro airport increased 47% between 2014 and 2019. In 2019 a total of 4.2 million airport arrivals were recorded, mirroring a 4% year-on-year increase.

Tourism accommodation demand increased 26% in the 2014 - 2019 period, reaching 21 million overnight stays in 2019, of which 13 million were in hotel accommodation.

Tourism accommodation nights in Algarve are mainly driven by international visitors, which represented an average of 77% overnight stays in the region during the past 2015 – 2019 years. The majority were originated from the United Kingdom (40%), followed by Germany (13%) and the Netherlands (9%). Although these three markets have reduced their presence over the past years, increased interest from other countries, such as USA, Brazil, and Italy, has been observed, supporting a wider market diversification.

Being strongly dependent on foreign tourism, the Algarve region was highly impacted by the Covid-19 outbreak. After a 62% breakdown in overnight stays in 2020, Algarve achieved 10.8 million overnight stays in 2021, + 38% y-o-y but still about half the demand levels of 2019. In 2022, 7,9 million overnight stays were recorded - 5% below 2019 levels. UK and Germany continue to top the ranking of main international markets in the region.

Algarve observed a fair growth in terms of supply, although at a slower pace than the demand. In 2021, the Algarve region registered 29,698 rooms, distributed across 259 hotels and hotel-apartments, primarily located in the region's central area. In 2022, Algarve gained 8 new hotels.

The hotel sector in Algarve has benefitted from a very positive price performance from 2015 to 2017, having then stabilized. In 2019, hotel occupancy rate was 64% and RevPAR €71. Despite the fall over the past two years, since February 2022 RevPAR is higher than 2019.

Hotel demand and revpar in algarve