Territorial Division and Demographics

The lastest data (2023) reveals that Portugal's demographic landscape is marked by a stable population of approximately 10.6 million, with a median age of 46.9 years. The country exhibits a low fertility rate of 1.5 children per woman and boasts a high life expectancy of 82.7 years. Urbanization is significant, with 66.5% of the population residing in urban areas. In recent years, Portugal has experienced a surge in immigration, resulting in a positive net migration rate. This trend indicates that the influx of newcomers surpasses the number of individuals leaving the country, rather than reflecting effective population retention.

Portuguese Population has an unpredictable movement

The portuguese population unpredictable movement makes it difficult to predict. 

Nevertheless the Portuguese demographic prospects for the following 25 years show the following:

1.Mild population decline from the current estimated value of 10.4 Million, to a 9.8 Million people figure by 2050;

2.Continued decline until a stabilization in 2080 in around an 8.7 Million people, which will roughly maintain until 2100;

However, this projections should be considered as an as-is simulation. Previous UNDP projections failed significantly in capturing the local nuances

Portuguese population estimates and projections [Million people]

due to highly volatile migratory balances

After losing population from 2009 to 2017, Portugal has exhibited a strong population growth with net gains in 2023 of more than 120 thousand people (roughly equivalent to 1% of the population).

This population momentum has been driven mainly by the migratory balance which more than compensates for the negative natural balance.This negative natural balance has lasted for nearly 2 decades and is being aggravated by the ongoing Portuguese youth emigration.According to the latest data from the Portuguese Emigration Observatory, about 850 thousand 18–39-year-olds live abroad.

The immigration that has been settling in Portugal is already having an impact on the natural balance, since a large portion of the immigrants settled in Portugal come from high-fertility countries, with a particular emphasis on the Luso-African countries.

nevertheless, the population has Aged

As previously noted, the portuguese median age is 46.9 years old, the highest since 1950, which evidences structural changes, evidenced in the Portuguese population pyramid. Portugal's population pyramid is indicative of an aging population, with a larger proportion of individuals in older age groups compared to younger ones. The base of the pyramid is narrow, reflecting low birth rates, while the middle and upper sections are wider, showing a significant number of middle-aged and elderly individuals. 

Portuguese population pyramid

And a metamorphosis of the Portuguese Households is underway

The aging population in Portugal has significantly transformed household composition, which significatly impacted the residential market. With increased life expectancy and declining birth rates, there is a growing number of elderly individuals living alone or in smaller family units. This demographic shift has led to a rise in single-person households and a decrease in multi-generational living arrangements. As the population ages, the demand for specialized housing and support services for older adults has become more pronounced, reflecting broader societal changes and challenges.